Sunday, 20 March 2016

World War 3

Its been a whirlwind few months in Syria. A quagmire of countries involved in the conflict, more countries pledging troops and refugees amassing at the Turkish border in the thousands. No one could have predicted the current situation of this conflict 5 years ago. Things are changing at such a rapid pace, it wouldn't be far fetched to suggest that this could ignite a World War very soon.

Russian support of Syria goes back a long way. From the Cold War, Syria was an ally of the Soviet Union and Hafiz Assad's coup in 1966 was supported by Russia. At the present day, Russia is a key weapons supplier to the Assad regime and it has expensive defensive contracts with the regime. It only logical that Russia jumped at the chance to support Assad at a crucial time. At a time when the heartland of the senior Alawite regime, Latakia, was slowly being overrun by the rebels or "terrorists", Assad bought in its last line of defence, Russia. It must have been on the table for the Assad regime for a long period of time, but only when the regime was in dire need would they call them. The reality on the ground now, it seems as though this Russian intervention, which seemed defensive at first, has now taken an overtly offensive one.  

This offensive has now started to ring alarm bells in the Arab world. The Iranians are advancing from the south via the Houthis and they are beginning to gain significant ground against the rebels in Syria. It seems like a cocktail of volatile materials have all been added and all that remains is the massive explosion.

* In recent developments, the Russians have announced a withdrawal. I'm sure they have other plans and this is only a media spin. Something which the Russians are seeming to master.